If accurate, new Harris vs. Trump polling shows likely presidential winner

Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight advantage over former President Donald Trump in new polling of the “blue wall,” which represents three states that could deliver her a White House victory.
Marist College dropped three new polls early on Friday of likely voters across Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The three polls, all conducted between Oct. 27-30, found Harris with a narrow lead over the former president in all three states, which comes just days before polls open on Nov. 5.
Winning all three of the “blue wall” states is the best path for Harris to win the White House. President Biden carried the three states in 2020 after Trump flipped them red in 2016 in his race against Hillary Clinton.
The Michigan poll found Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump. She had 51 percent of support among likely voters while Trump clinched 48 percent. Another 1 percent said they would vote for a different candidate.
While Harris maintains a slight lead in Michigan, her lead is down from when the poll was last taken in September when she had a 5-point lead. Lee M. Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in the press release that favorability ratings are driving more voters to back Harris than Trump.
“Driving the presidential numbers in Michigan is that there are more voters who have a better impression of Harris than Trump,” Miringoff said. “Trump’s favorability rating is upside down. His negative rating significantly exceeds his positive score.”
The Michigan results were based on responses from 1,214 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
In Wisconsin, Harris has a 2-point lead over Trump. She clinched 50 percent of support among likely voters while Trump trailed with 48 percent. One percent said they would vote for another party’s candidate while another 1 percent said they were undecided.
Miringoff said the close race is because of “the weaker traction Harris has against Trump among independents compared with Biden four years ago.” She has a 6-point lead among independents in the new poll, but Biden had a 12-point advantage in 2020. The results are based on 1,330 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
One of the polls also found that Harris has a 2-point lead over Trump in Pennsylvania. She has 50 percent of support among likely voters while Trump has 48 percent of support. One percent said they would vote for another party’s candidate while another 1 percent said they were undecided.
In Pennsylvania, there has been a 19-point shift among independents. Harris now has 55 percent of support among independents while Trump has 40 percent.
“The Keystone State is the biggest prize of the three highly competitive so-called Blue Wall states,” Miringoff said in the press release. “The good news for Harris is she is running stronger among independents and white voters than Biden did four years ago. The bad news is the gender gap is not as wide here as it was in 2020 or, in fact, where it is elsewhere now.”
The Pennsylvania results are based on responses from 1,400 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
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